tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3774757551172385279.post4273137310235590089..comments2022-06-18T13:07:22.518+03:00Comments on Thoughts Of A Private Investor: Nautilus MineralsUltraLonghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03225826814527103739noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3774757551172385279.post-9192934599875551662013-02-16T23:58:21.486+02:002013-02-16T23:58:21.486+02:00It looks like my definition "lottery ticket&q...It looks like my definition "lottery ticket" was quite fitting one. For the last two years the stock price has been trending down and is now below C$0.50.<br /><br />The most serious headwind comes from dispute with state of PNG over Solwara 1 which has been their flagship project. It looks like that one won't fly. They have plenty of other prospects, but time is money so I have very low expectations for this company at the moment. Have so little in the position that I don't at the moment bother to sell. Interesting company anyway as the pioneer of underwater mining, so I continue watching this one..<br /><br />Press releases from the company related to Solwara 1 :<br /><br />November 13, 2012 Nautilus Minerals terminates equipment build for its Solwara 1 Project <br /><br />July 17, 2012 Nautilus aims to resolve dispute <br /><br />June 20, 2012 Further Update on Dispute Process with State of PNG <br /><br />June 18, 2012 Nautilus continues discussions to resolve dispute with State of PNG <br /><br />June 01, 2012 Nautilus dispute with the State of PNG <br /><br />UltraLonghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03225826814527103739noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3774757551172385279.post-70635923910221298652012-03-12T18:02:32.420+02:002012-03-12T18:02:32.420+02:00Took a position in Nautilus around 9 months ago at...Took a position in Nautilus around 9 months ago at $3 per share and it's currently around $2. We are about 15 months away from the launch of the ship so I would say the last quarter of this year is when increased interest in this venture will pick up. <br />Certainly $2 is a potentially great entry price for anyone who likes a gamble as this could have huge returns and there are 3 big investors in the Company who may be interested in buying Nautilus out should the project prove successful.<br />I for one am extremely confident that my current paper loss, on my investment, will turn around in a hurry during the next 9 months.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3774757551172385279.post-19542412541050421382011-08-11T01:54:22.278+03:002011-08-11T01:54:22.278+03:00How do you conduct do-diligence on an industry sto...How do you conduct do-diligence on an industry stock that has no peers that have produced yet? There is no model. The mining equipment is science fiction. There is nothing but drill results to digest. Everything else is faith. You can't compare these reserves to a mine on land. <br />At $1800 gold we are looking, but not going to tie up any funds as it is.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3774757551172385279.post-8833054330101716762011-06-24T09:54:41.501+03:002011-06-24T09:54:41.501+03:00See also later post:
Nautilus Minerals revisited...See also later post: <br /><br />Nautilus Minerals revisited:<br />http://thoughtsofaprivateinvestor.blogspot.com/2011/06/nautilus-minerals-revisited.htmlUltraLonghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03225826814527103739noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3774757551172385279.post-82195919349566433572010-09-28T21:58:21.672+03:002010-09-28T21:58:21.672+03:00Unfortunately it seems these type of small and ill...Unfortunately it seems these type of small and illuquid companies are vulnerable to pump and dump schemes. However, I typically disconnect the stock price movements from the company in itself. For Nautilus Minerals it is hard to say what is the correct price that should be paid for it. That is why I called it a lottery ticket. The same is true for any mining company in the similar position (not producing).<br /><br />However, I am willing to risk all my money in this position in the hope that they actually do what they said they will. Then the company can easily be a tenbagger or more. If it does not work out, the company is not worth much.UltraLonghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03225826814527103739noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3774757551172385279.post-19785368768014253962010-09-23T22:22:44.131+03:002010-09-23T22:22:44.131+03:00Most certainly it has been manipulated. A big bl...Most certainly it has been manipulated. A big block of trades were executed in late June, then the pump-and-dump debacle, and subsequent drift back down.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3774757551172385279.post-41660016224402795802010-09-22T16:28:55.094+03:002010-09-22T16:28:55.094+03:00Hate to mention it, but it looks like the stock...Hate to mention it, but it looks like the stock's been heavily manipulated: http://www.jcamberger.com/2010/09/when-push-comes-to-pump-whatever-happened-to-underwater-gold-sands/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3774757551172385279.post-68785048935946176162010-08-21T23:17:14.302+03:002010-08-21T23:17:14.302+03:00Great summary! I have been following NUS for more...Great summary! I have been following NUS for more than three years now and am captivated by the premise.<br /><br />I have a couple of comments:<br /><br />It looks like the company is not going to issue more shares, preferring to partner with another entity. They are in "very advanced" negotiations with two companies right now.<br /><br />I have been crunching the production numbers, based on the best available information reported by the company itself. I estimate the annual revenue at $1.193 billion per year. With costs estimated at $150/ton and padding in $300 million per year in additional CAPEX/OPEX I get a profit of $653 million per year. With 155,600,000 shares outstanding, and using a lowball 10 PE, this equates to a shareprice of $41.98 per share, once things get rolling. If I'm incorrect on this valuation, I would be more than happy to share my analysis for review.<br /><br />As you say, there are a lot of risks, but with a > 20x potential upside, this seems to be well worth the risk at today's price.DataVisualizedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04917820245163856299noreply@blogger.com