Monday, July 31, 2017

On success as an investor

According to Peter Lynch (the legendary fund manager of Fidelity Magellan) the qualities related to success as an investor are:
  • patience
  • self-reliance
  • common sense
  • a tolerance for pain
  • open-mindedness
  • detachment
  • persistence
  • humility
  • flexibility
  • willingness to do independent research
  • willingness to admit mistakes
  • ability to ignore general panic

Out of the above list I think willingness to admit mistakes is the hardest. Acting on a mistake is actually even harder as this typically involves selling a stock at significant loss.

Over the 20+ years of investing I have gradually got better at avoiding mistakes. It is extremely rare to find a bargain selling at open market. Low P/E and P/B are typically there for a reason (look for them!). Same with very high yeild.

Out of the all "great ideas" I have had over the years very few have been actually great. I think roughly equal amount (if not more) have been in the exact opposite category. So I tend to be sceptical with regards to any "great idea" that I come up with.

Mistakes do happen when inveting directly into individual stocks as opposed to picking a safe ETF tracking sensible idex.

That's why adequate diversification is paramount.

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Allocation update mid 2017

Time for mid-year portfolio update.

Currently our portfolio is allocated as follows:

  Stocks 98,5%
  Gold 1,4%
  Cash 0,1%

No bonds. We simply substitute bonds with quality dividend payers in our portfolio.


Geographical Allocation (stocks):

  Europe 63,3%
  North America 26,6%
  Emerging markets 10,1%

Actually, place of incorporation is pretty meaningless for most corporations we have invested in.
Most operate and sell globally.


Sector Allocation (stocks) - in order of weight in portfolio:

  Technology – Other
  Financial
  Technology – Semiconductor
  Healthcare
  Clean Energy
  Basic Materials & related services
  Broad Emerging Market ETFs
  Industrial Goods


Top 5 positions - in order of weight in portfolio:

  Siili Solutions (Finland)
  Nokia (Finland)
  Fortum (Finland)
  UPM (Finland)
  Berkshire Hathaway (USA)


18,8% of all stock positions are done via ETFs.
None of those positions made it to top 5 though.

Sunday, April 30, 2017

Which stocks famous money managers hold?

Dataroma tracks famous value oriented money managers that they call "superinvestors". Among them are legendary investors like Warren Buffett.

I regularly take a look what they hold, what they have bought and what let go.

Here is "Top 20" by ownership count compared to situation I had on file from September 2016 (please click to enlarge):






I included all stocks that had up to 10 owners among the famous investors tracked by Dataroma.
 
The notable changes since September 2016:

  • Apple ownership increased significantly (+5)
  • Wells Fargo made to pole position by continuing to rise in the list (again +3 since last time I checked)
  • Allergan, Comcast and Amazon made it to the list (I have not tracked these before)
  • JPMorgan made again to the list (have been in top 20 before)
  • United Health Group, Liberty Global and Wal-Mart Stores dropped from the list (less than 10 owners this time)
 

Sunday, March 19, 2017

Helsinki Top 10 Over Billion Euro Companies

There are currently 32 companies listed in NASDAQ OMX Helsinki that exceed market cap of 1 billion euros. I ran my personalized screen to get top 10 list out of those companies.

I use a service provided by Valuatum.com via Pörssisäätiö to screen stocks listed in NASDAQ OMX Helsinki. I was not able to rank the following companies due to missing data: Nordea, Sampo, SSAB, Amer Sports and DNA.

Top 10
  1. Citycon - score 2,2 - market cap 2,0 billion euros
  2. Sponda - score 2,2 - market cap 1,4 billion euros
  3. Orion - score 1,9 - market cap 7,3 billion euros
  4. Telia - score 1,8 - market cap 16,8 billion euros
  5. Nokian Renkaat -  score 1,8 - market cap 5,3 billion euros
  6. Sanoma -  score 1,8 - market cap 1,3 billion euros
  7. Elisa -  score 1,7 - market cap 5,6 billion euros
  8. Kone -  score 1,4 - market cap 21,2 billion euros
  9. Fortum  -  score 1,4 - market cap 12,8 billion euros
  10. Neste  -  score 1,4 - market cap 8,9 billion euros
Average Score of all 122 companies in the research database: 1,3
Median Score 1,3

Parameters used in screen (weight):
-------------------------------------------
 P/B estimate current year (13%)
 P/E estimate current year; next year (8%; 10%)
 Dividend yield estimate current year; next year (8%, 8%)
 ROA estimate current year (10%)
 ROI estimated 3 year average ending current year (8%)
 ROE estimated 3 year average ending next year (8%)
 Turnover estimated increase in 3 years ending next year (8%)
 Net Profit estimated increase in 3 years ending next year (8%)
 Gross Margin estimate current year (8%)
 Profit Margin estimate current year (8%)

The used parameters emphasize attractive valuation (31%), profitability in broad sense (26% weight), growth (16%) and dividend yield (16%).

The screen relies on estimates about future. Those combined with volatility of stock prices means that you should not try to chase screens like these (I don't). Ultimately any investment decision should be based on much more than just looking at the current numbers and estimates of future numbers.


Disclosure: Author is shareholder in Citycon and Fortum.

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

Exit from "big oil"

I decided to exit from Chevron and Statoil.

I felt Chevron was ripe to be sold and Statoil was tossed out in the same decision making process.

This means that the only direct stake left in oil & gas industry is Fred Olsen Energy - a position, which has been also trimmed downwards.

Overall these moves mean it will be just matter of time that we exit from the whole sector.

Proceeds have been diverted mostly to small-to-medium publicly-listed companies in Finland in multiple sectors.